Copper is emerging as the standout critical mineral as new forecasts point to a growing global supply deficit while most other energy-transition commodities move towards more balanced markets.
BloombergNEF expects copper supply to fall short of demand from 2028, with the deficit widening to around 20 million tonnes by 2050.
That would represent roughly 44% of projected global demand and require an estimated US$332 billion of investment in new mines.
By contrast, nine of the 10 transition metals studied by BloombergNEF are expected to have sufficient long-term supply capacity through 2050 if planned projects proceed.
Demand for copper continues to rise because of its role in electricity grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy and data centres.
The forecast strengthens the long-term outlook for Australian copper producers and developers, particularly projects with scale and access to infrastructure.
However, the shortfall also highlights the challenge facing new mines, which can take years to permit, finance and build.
For investors, copper increasingly stands apart from lithium, nickel and cobalt, where supply growth has moved ahead of demand in recent years.
