Whitbread profits have 34% upside if the UK can avoid the worst of a recession, JP Morgan believes but could slide if things really do turn bad.
The US bank has full-year 2024 underlying profits reaching £349mln as its current base case, but better than expected growth in revenue per room (revpar) could see that improve by a third.
On the flip side, the Premier Inn owner's profits face a downside of 23% should the economic backdrop worsen.
JPM's target price remains unchanged at 4,050p or 60% above the current market price, and it hopes that the third quarter update due 12th January will indicate some positive movement.
Shares today were up 2.4$ at 2,599p.