Barclays Capital re-looked at the housebuilding sector as it made two upgrades and a downgrade.
It went to ‘underweight’ from ‘overweight’ on shares in Persimmon, cutting its price target to £25 a share from £30.
It sees Persimmon as most at risk to the end of the government’s Help to Buy scheme for people on the first rung of the property ladder.
Across the industry, it reckons risks associated with house price inflation, higher borrowing costs and the end of incentives for first-time buyers as largely priced in.
It remains ‘overweight’ on Redrow and Vistry and moved to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal-weight’ on Crest Nicholson (LSE:CRST) and to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’ for Berkeley Group.
"Forward order books provide short-term protection to volumes, however, we see particular demand risks for first-time buyers, where rising interest rates have a more pronounced impact on mortgage costs," Barclays said in a note to clients.
"Help to Buy ends in early 2023 and currently accounts for circa 20% of the sector's private sales - this poses a transition risk.
“Our analysis shows that Persimmon is most exposed to these risks, given its product and customer mix.”