Top of the market to you!


More and more anectotal evidence keeps showing up that we are getting near the top of the market. “Top of the market to you!”

Yet again on going out to dinner with friends almost the first thing said by one was “I’m going to buy some Bitcoin.”

That was after several friends of Mrs NT’s whose idea of the stock market is to be kind a bit rocky also made similar comments.

I try and move conversations like this along as I know they look at me hopefully as if I should validate a massive gamble.

Instead I go “have you heard such and such is splitting up with their husband…” (This usually works).

What I would say is “Are you bonkers! Playing with something that could go up or down 30pc in a few hours! What could possibly go wrong?

Oh and something you might not be able to sell at all if the S really hits the fan.Go to Kempton Park instead and have fun on the horses..

Anyway more evidence from reader Ann
” Hi Robbie..."You always say that when everyone is buying we should start selling -
I waste many hours on Mumsnet. For the first time I have seen people posting advice that posters should invest in stocks and shares.

Someone posted asking if it was a good idea to spend her 100,000K money pot on a b-t-l property, but two posters have come on telling her to put it in stocks and shares! I've never seen that advice before. Is it signalling the end of the boom!!!!"

Yes it probably is. And I’m getting more and more emails from people obviously just wanting a good gamble.

And reader Phil writes When using Google to search the term "Why are...." the following came up as a top ranking suggestion "why are cryptocurrencies falling".

I am guessing lots of people put cash towards the top of the bubble and are now asking Google what's happening. I believe Google makes suggestions for searches by the number of searches people make. Could be some big losses for people who entered late into the trade..if they can get out.

Reader Teresa says “There was a question written in to MSE with Martin Lewis
this evening asks is it good to have a stocks and shares ISA. Another sign we are near the top?”

I bet the spreadbet firms are laughing all the way to the bank from those trying to play currencies. (ps 99% lose playing normal currencies, good luck with that).

Any anecdotal evidence we are near a top gratefully received.

Anyway as you know I’ve been away to Dubai. A few red flags about the economy there see up top. I try not to trade much when on hols. Dubai makes it easy, markets open at noon!

Xmas rally trades were on and stops were soon put in place.

Now I know. Reading about how a smug t****** made a lot of money on it again must be irritating and I do get it. It’s always more fun to read about things that go wrong. When they go wrong I promise I will tell you and it will be more entertaining but..

But I did make a lot. Both on the FTSE but more on the Dow Jones. Indeed the rally just kept on going and I just kept moving up stops as they went higher. In the end for example the ftse got to about 7790 or so and I raised stops to 7725 ish where they got stopped out and I took giant profits. Actually about where the FTSE is today.

The Dow ones however really paid off the most. Overall? I made around £75,000 possibly more. I’ve just started to cut the Dow bets and have about a quarter left. I prefer to bank the profits rather than worry about making any more, or missing out on more. Leave something for someone else as they say.

Indeed over the holidays with shares combined I made nearly £150,000 which is already enough for the whole year. It is tempting to cash in for this year and spend the rest of it feet up and working on other projects away from money.

So. I’ve taken some profits, banked an awful lot of spreadbetting gains and locked them away.

I reckon this year is going to be difficult. There is a lot that could go wrong and with markets riding at highs why take the risk?

This year is the year that every trade MUST have everything going for it. And the main thing has to be low debt or net cash. Anything with big debt could get hit (see Carillion).

I expect to trade less, probably go short if they start to tank and maintain a massive cash balance. I don’t have any need to trade at all for some time, everything I have is paid for, no debt.

Onto some actual trades then. It’s a bit difficult as it’s been a while since the last update and I made a few nice trades. However one or two I already took profits on so won’t bother with those and one or two were made before Xmas so I’ll leave those to myself!

I think just mention the more recent ones made in the last week or two. Less work for me too! Indeed here is one made this very morning!

This share that popped up on a screen at the Friday seminar and it was Abcam (ABC). A very interesting one. The problem is it is rated quite highly.
Before buying a high rated share as we discussed you have to decide, is it worth paying the price. Well, it can be if it is a great company. And I think this one is !

So I bought some as early as I could this morning. ABC supplies life science research tools. Profits are soaring and forecasts look good.

Trouble with highly rated companies is any question mark and they get hammered. I feel this is unlikely here but still a possible. However my initial intentional is to Park Abcam shares into the ISA and hopefully let the share price gradually grow with a long-term view.

It is quite volatile so I will give it a chance to breathe. It just could be one of those that could be 50% higher by year end.

A similar view I have of Taptica (LON:TAP). Those that get theemail know I bought this for the sipp already previously but now I added them for the ISA.

It’s already announced that it expects its earnings for 2017 are going to be ahead of expectations and it has just raised £22m via a share placing which is promising. Its valuation looks on the low side given earnings are ahead so I have bought some pretty much like ABC with a longer-term view.

One of the biggest mistakes I think made by traders is the fear of buying things that have gone up – they would rather the shares came down again to get in. But better to just buy them because if they are good they will carry on going up.

Case in point is K3C (LON:KC3). I’d already bought these in the 120s but was more than happy to buy more much higher when they came up with a superb statement.

Always look at a share from, afresh as if you had never bought it. Would you buy it on those fundamentals? Ignore the rise then and buy some more.

I think K3C looks well run and we had a good look at it at the seminar. Still looks very cheap and there seems a demand for the shares in the market.

The market makers offer good prices for sells which is a good sign. Potential big winner for 2018. The spread is a bit of an issue but usually you can deal well within it for both buys and sells.

And I picked up some Computacentre (LON:CCC) another seminar pop up!

This company has absolutely tons of cash, so much it is due to announce a tender offer to shareholders tomorrow.

Its statement today was very strong indeed with lots of
buzz words especially another “ahead of”. Oh, please don’t email me what a tender offer is, google it !!

Some profit taking to report.

I’ve finally sold the IG spreadbet  it has had an amazing run and banked profits of £2,950. This adds to the profits of £1,598 on the original buy and a lot more for me personally.

I had a great run with Vlx (LON:VLX), it’s gone nicely over target so taken some nice profits of £1,211. ULS hit over target for a profit of £229. Xsg profits taken of £2,585. A topslice at Nfc for £647.

Fenner, goodness I never thought it would zoom up so fast and keep going and it was an easy decision to take profits of £2,570.

I didn’t get out right at the top before it slid but happy with the trade. It has slipped a bit these last few days and I’m considering a re-entry.

I have quite a lot of 888 (a lot I have more than doubled on) so took a top slice of a more recent buy banking a profit of £800. That’s total profits taken for the site today of £10,992.
Elsewhere the market seemed happy with Alliance Pharma’s (LON:APH)  statement today, very big profits building here and for now happy to remain holding.

Same comment to NMC (LON:NMC)  health up yet again today on its announcement today. What a share – 500p to over 3000p!
Sopheon (LON:SPE) is on a very good run after the market seemed very pleased with its very bullish statement, looks like this one could start to run up above 500 and could yet prove to be a substantial profit maker.

I’ve had a good “strike” with my two tenpin bowling operators Ten Ent and Hollywood Bowl. As I said when I bought two great tuckaways, Ten especially is nearly a quid higher.

There remains hardly anything in the portfolio losing at the mo so very happy. However as discussed above the market is high and so caution is needed.

I’m quite ready to go into more cash and switch into shorts if needed but as usual I keep an open mind and if it continues to climb I will try and take advantage. Those of you who have made good sums, you must decide your strategy if the market turns…

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