Traders on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, are pricing in a strong debut for Oura, the Finnish-American maker of the health-tracking smart ring.
The market on Oura's closing market capitalisation on its first day of trading gives a 28% probability to a valuation of $20 billion or more, the single largest band.
A further 25% is assigned to the $17.5 billion to $20 billion range. Taken together, that puts a 53% chance on Oura closing its first session worth more than $17.5 billion.
That sits comfortably above the figure reported earlier this week. Bloomberg reported that Oura Health is seeking to raise as much as $3 billion in a United States listing that could value it at more than $16 billion, with the offering possible as soon as September.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JPMorgan Chase, Allen & Co and Jefferies are managing the deal.
Probabilities fall away sharply below that level. The $15 billion to $17.5 billion band carries 14%, the $12.5 billion to $15 billion band 11%, and $10 billion to $12.5 billion just 7%.
A valuation below $7.5 billion is priced at 3%. Traders assign only a 4% chance that no listing happens before January 2027, a notable vote of confidence in the timetable given the company filed confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission only in May.
Total volume on the market stands at $300,637, and it resolves on 31 December.
The implied valuation rests on subscription income rather than hardware sales. Oura charges members from $5.99 a month, expects to pass five million paid subscribers this quarter, and has said around 80% of members renew after their first year.
Revenue reached $500 million in 2024 and roughly $1 billion in 2025, with chief executive Tom Hale projecting close to $2 billion this year.
Risks remain. A proposed class action filed in California this month alleges the company overstated how accurately its rings identify sleep stages, a claim Oura disputes.