Bitcoin speculators are positioning for a cramped, choppy August, with prediction market Polymarket pricing a strong chance of a move to $65,000 but almost no prospect of a fresh record.
The "What price will Bitcoin hit in August?" market gives the cryptocurrency roughly a 59% chance of touching $65,000 at some point during the month.
Traders put the odds of a run to $67,500 at 25%, falling to just 10% for $70,000 and 2% for $75,000.
The market had drawn more than $24 million in trading volume, making it one of the busier crypto contracts on the platform.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $62,900 as the odds were captured, and traded around $63,050 on 14 August, down about 1.3% on the day.
That leaves it roughly 50% below the all-time high of about $126,000 reached last October.
On the downside, Polymarket assigned a 91% probability to Bitcoin slipping to $62,500 and a 44% chance of a drop to $60,000.
The odds of a fall all the way to $50,000 were priced at just 2%.
The pattern points to traders betting on a narrow, volatile band rather than a decisive move in either direction.
Bitcoin has been stuck in range-bound trading since early June, when a monthly slide of more than 20% shook confidence.
The recent softness has been driven by outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, coin sales by corporate holders, geopolitical tension and caution ahead of US inflation data.
Analysts have flagged support around $63,000 and $58,000, with resistance clustered near $67,000 and above.
August has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, particularly in US midterm election years, when the period has repeatedly ended lower.
A separate Polymarket contract put the chance of a new record by the end of September at only 1%.