Bettors now make Anthropic the firm most likely to reach public markets before OpenAI. The Polymarket contract on which AI lab floats first puts Anthropic at 73%. OpenAI sits at 30 cents on the dollar.
That is a sharp move. The Anthropic price has climbed 23 points, and the chart shows it jumping above 80% in early June before settling in the high 60s.
The bet has $188,135 riding on it and resolves at the end of 2027.
The odds match the news flow
The repricing is not random. It tracks what each company has actually done. Anthropic filed confidentially on 1 June for a debut expected late this year. It raised money in late May at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI's private mark for the first time.
OpenAI filed days later but is now pulling in the other direction.
OpenAI may push its float to 2027
The company is leaning toward delaying its listing from late this year into 2027, sources told The New York Times. Its advisers spent the past week warning that a float might struggle for demand while tech shares slide.
Sam Altman wanted a $1 trillion valuation. Offered a choice between waiting for that figure or floating sooner at less, he called any cut a "nonstarter".
So the timing slips while the price holds. That is exactly the kind of delay that hands a rival the first-mover slot.
SpaceX gave the market a fright
The caution has a recent cause. SpaceX listed on 12 June and raised more than $85 billion, the largest debut on record.
The stock then went into reverse, closing at $153 on Thursday after topping $225 last week. Elon Musk lost his trillionaire status along the way.
A wobble that severe at the front of the queue makes everyone behind it think twice.
Not gospel
Prediction markets are not gospel. The earlier dip to 20% on the chart shows how fast this contract can swing on a single headline. But the current price tells a coherent story. One lab is filing and pressing ahead. The other is filing and looking for the exit.
On that reading, the company that most people have never used may beat the one they all have to the bell.