With a June listing on the cards and 21 banks assembled, Elon Musk's rocket company is heading for a public debut that would dwarf Saudi Aramco's record by a factor of nearly three
Elon Musk's SpaceX has filed confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission for what is shaping up to be the largest initial public offering in stock market history, with prediction markets already placing the company's likely closing market cap at $1.86 trillion on its first day of trading.
The filing, reported simultaneously by Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters on April 1, puts SpaceX on track for a June listing.
The deal, internally codenamed Project Apex, has drawn in 21 banks, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup serving as lead bookrunners.
The company is targeting a raise of up to $75 billion, which would dwarf Saudi Aramco's $29 billion listing in 2019, the current record holder.
What prediction markets say
Polymarket, which aggregates real-money bets on future events, is pricing the closing market cap on the first day of trading at $1.857 trillion.
The most heavily backed outcome, at 54%, is a closing market cap in the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range, with the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion band attracting 26% of bets.
Separate Polymarket contracts show a 96% probability that the market cap will exceed $1 trillion, and a 46% chance it closes above $2 trillion.
The no-IPO-before-2028 outcome carries just 2% probability, a signal that the market regards the June timeline as credible.
What SpaceX is and why it commands that kind of number
The company that Musk founded in 2002 with PayPal proceeds is no longer simply a rocket business.
SpaceX merged earlier this year with xAI, Musk's generative artificial intelligence company, creating a conglomerate spanning launch services, the Starlink satellite internet network and AI infrastructure.
Revenues across the combined entity will be around $20 billion in 2026, with Starlink's constellation of around 10,000 satellites providing the bulk of recurring income.
The cash from the IPO is earmarked for several capital-intensive objectives: Developing Starship, the heavy-lift rocket central to NASA's ambitions of returning humans to the moon and Musk's own plans for Mars; replenishing ageing Starlink satellites; and funding the compute requirements of xAI's AI models.
Up to 30% of shares are expected to be allocated to retail investors, three times the typical IPO norm, reflecting the broad public appetite for Musk-linked investments.
The Musk factor
The filing is expected to include a dual-class share structure giving Musk and other insiders enhanced voting rights. Tesla, which holds a stake in xAI converted into a small SpaceX position following regulatory approval, will see that holding publicly valued for the first time.
Investor briefings are expected this month ahead of the road show.