Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) has laid out an ambitious growth plan to 2030, and Citi thinks it stacks up, even if the near term still looks sluggish.
The broker kept its 'buy' rating and lifted its target price to £1.45 after the housebuilder’s investor day yesterday.
Management set out a roadmap to lift annual volumes to around 14,000 units by the end of the decade, with operating margins climbing to 16.4%.
That longer-term mix improvement from the landbank is expected to drive double-digit earnings growth from 2027 onwards, with Citi pencilling in gains of 18-22% a year.
The short term is less buoyant. Citi has trimmed its 2026-27 forecasts by 6-7%, reflecting softer volumes and what it calls a “more modest margin recovery” over the next two years.
With the housing market still cautious, progress will be gradual before the benefits of outlet expansion and cost leverage feed through.
Even so, the long-term story is encouraging. Citi argues that while the step-up in returns in 2029-30 will not be priced in until there is clearer visibility, Taylor Wimpey looks well-positioned to deliver on its promises.
For investors prepared to look past the immediate drag, the message is that the heavy lifting now could pay off handsomely later in the decade.
The shares were up 1% at 107.03p.