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Real Estate

Taylor Wimpey's guidance reassures, but mid-term outlook 'looks low'

Taylor Wimpey PLC's (LSE:TW.) current trading was in line with expectations, analysts said, while the new medium-term targets it has shares were seen as mostly positive.

In a short trading update, ahead of a capital markets event in the afternoon, the FTSE 250 housebuilder said sales rates in the nine weeks to September were 0.65x, down from 0.70x last year, with prricing broadly flat.

It remains on track to hit the current consensus operating profit guidance of circa £424 million.

New medium-term targets include delivering around 14,000 UK completed sales at group operating margins of 16-18%.

Growth will be driven by higher outlet numbers, without the need for new net land investment, as a shorter landbank of between four and a half and five years is being targeted.

Over time, the company expects the return on net operating assets to grow to above 20%.

The capital allocation policy is reaffirmed, which analyst Sam Cullen at Peel Hunt said suggests the current dividend of 7.5% of net assets will be maintained.

"While any measures to improve asset turn and returns to shareholders should be welcomed," they added, "we remain conscious of the fact that, even if the strategy proves successful (and utilising the group’s long land bank has proved a challenge in recent times), returns will remain well below prior levels.

"At first glance, the targeted medium-term returns look circa 30% below prior levels on a pre-tax basis and circa 50% lower on a post-tax basis, which will have clear implications for the multiple the business can command."

Analyst Charlie Campbell at Stifel said the market "will be relieved that guidance for FY25 is maintained, and will welcome the targeted improvements, but might perhaps be a little disappointed that targets are somewhere off historic peak levels."

He said the UK housebuilding sector remains "in the doldrums", with fundamentals of the market "in reasonable shape" as UK real wages rise, mortgage rates fall, and affordability gradually improves.

"Confidence is missing both from consumers and investors as the Budget (26 November) is weighing heavily following the government's defeat on welfare reform (3 July).

"The sector is again trading close to six year lows and has lost 13% from year highs. That said, the sector is up 9% since the recent Cabinet reshuffle, which has perhaps been taken as a sign of a more market-friendly outcome to the next fiscal event."

Stifel has a 'buy' rating on Taylor Wimpey, based on a year-ahead view that the valuation is "now at a low level and we expect cyclical improvement to follow".

This view is underpinned by the company's unique dividend policy (paying a dividend in proportion to assets), giving it the highest yield available in the sector, at around 9%.