UBS Global Wealth Management analysts now see the odds of the US tipping into a recession at 25%, up from 20%.
The analysts attributed their increased odds to softer jobs growth and July unemployment data, which prompted fears of a downturn.
They continue to expect a base case of a soft landing depending on consumer spending but noted the outlook was “cloudy.”
Earlier this month, JPMorgan analysts also raised the odds of a recession in the US by the year-end to 35%.
They see softer-than-expected labor market data and slowing economic growth raising the probability of a downturn and continue to expect a 45% probability of a recession by the end of 2025.
However, last week Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%, shortly after raising it from 15%.