After Germany's cabinet approved new laws to legalise the adult use and growing of cannabis for recreational purposes, the rest of Europe and the UK have been predicted to follow suit.
The German bill, which still needs to be approved by the Bundestag, which is expected by the end of the year, includes proposals to legalise possession of up to 25 grammes of cannabis for recreational purposes, allow individuals to grow a small number of cannabis plants and to form 'cannabis clubs' to grow more.
Since passing a law in 2017 that legalised the use of cannabis for medicinal purposes, the country has since been seen as providing an example of how markets could expand in other countries - though some local cannabis market supporters said the bill was too watered down and hamstrung by ‘bureaucratic overkill’.
The UK for example, followed suit by legalising medical cannabis in November 2018 and patient numbers have been growing by an estimate thousand or so patients a month.
The success of Germany's potential new laws in reducing black market sales and scientific studies evaluating the effects of cannabis use, including the massive Project Twenty21, is likely to influence future policy in the UK and elsewhere.
“It is inevitable that much of Europe will follow Germany’s lead and although we are no longer in the EU, it would be no surprise for the UK to be a few years behind," said Jon Robson, chief executive of UK medical cannabis clinic Mamedica.
Cannabis companies around Europe will certainly be watching developments in Germany closely.
Davinder Rao, chief executive of licensed cannabis cultivator and supplier Hellenic Dynamics PLC, said the company is one of them.
“What will be particularly important is the interplay between recreational and medicinal cannabis use going forward and whether this further accelerates the recognition and adoption of cannabis in Germany and other markets for the treatment of medical conditions,” he said.
Professor Mike Barnes, a neurologist who educates and trains doctors about prescribing medical cannabis, said the proposed German legislation “shows that a sensible but safe approach to drug policy and harm reduction can be taken".
“I hope the UK government begins to take this issue seriously and move forward with a parallel policy as soon as possible."
Barnes has attributed the slow growth in acceptance of medical cannabis in the UK to caution from regulators, among other factors.
Robson said the moves in Germany could not only show the potential stimulus to economic growth through new revenues, legal jobs and subsequent taxes, but could contribute to destigmatising its use.
“This is not to say that this transition will be seamless as it will require concerted efforts to ensure there are robust regulations in place to tackle abuse and misuse, as well as educational campaigns to inform the public of responsible consumption and promote awareness of the health benefits and risks," he said.
Quality and consistency of cannabis supplied for medicinal use in the UK are issues raised by Barnes and Robson.
“Striking a balance between accessibility and regulation is key to embracing the benefits of legalisation while curbing unintended negative consequences," Robson said.
"Should these barriers be addressed the success of the medical market will inevitably pave the way for adult recreational sales as it has done in North America and in parts of Europe, where some countries are already legislating for sales by 2024."