A rise in long-term illnesses is threatening to increase the government's spend on disability benefits by as much as £11bln in the eight years to 2027.
People suffering from long-term back pain and depression have spiked since Covid leading to the annual welfare bill jumping by £5bln since April 2019.
Currently, 2.7mln Brits of working age receive disability benefits, a 670,000 jump from pre-pandemic levels.
Around 20,000 people claim disability benefits every month, research from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) found.
Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, a research economist at IFS, said: “This is a major spending control headache for the Government, and its connection to reduced workforce participation is worrying.”
He thinks the evidence supports a case of “extraordinary deterioration in the population’s health” which started before the pandemic.
UK employment lifted to 76% in the months between November and April, figures from the Office of National Statistics found on Tuesday.
Unemployment also increased in the same period to 3.8%, driven by a rise in people out of work for more than twelve months.