Australia could collect around A$45 billion more each year from mining, oil and gas without necessarily undermining investment, according to new analysis arguing the country’s resource tax system fails to capture enough of the upside when commodity prices surge.
The report estimates around A$28 billion of additional annual revenue could come from mining, including iron ore, coal, gold, copper and lithium, with another A$16 billion to A$18 billion potentially available from petroleum, gas and liquefied natural gas.
The central argument is that Australia relies too heavily on flat royalties and tax structures that do not automatically rise when commodity prices and company profits boom.
Resource tax debate reignites
The analysis points to Queensland’s progressive coal royalty system as evidence that governments can collect more during periods of extremely high prices without bringing investment to a halt.
Queensland lifted royalty rates sharply for coal sold above certain thresholds, including a top rate of 40% on the portion above A$300 a tonne.
Despite industry warnings, the number of active coal mines initially increased after the changes, while employment remained broadly stable.
The report also criticises the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, arguing its design has produced much weaker revenue than expected despite Australia becoming one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.
The findings are likely to intensify debate over who benefits most from Australia’s commodity wealth.
With government budgets under pressure from healthcare, defence, infrastructure and an ageing population, stronger resource taxation could become increasingly politically attractive.
The mining industry is likely to push back, arguing that higher taxes could damage future investment at a time when Australia is competing globally for capital in copper, lithium and critical minerals.
