Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to climb to A$422 billion in 2026-27, supported by high energy prices and growing demand for commodities used in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the energy transition.
The latest government outlook represents an increase from about A$403 billion in 2025-26 and an upgrade of A$6 billion from the previous forecast.
The improvement comes despite weaker prospects for some traditional commodities, with rapidly growing demand for copper, lithium and other critical minerals helping reshape Australia’s export mix.
Lithium earnings surge
Lithium is one of the standout commodities.
Australian lithium export earnings are forecast to rise from about A$10.2 billion in 2025-26 to more than A$16.6 billion this financial year, following a dramatic recovery in spodumene prices.
Australian lithium mine production is expected to grow by around 8.8% annually through to 2031 as existing mines expand and new developments enter production.
Copper is another long-term beneficiary, with Australian export earnings forecast to rise from A$14 billion to A$19 billion by 2030-31 as data centres, electricity grids and renewable infrastructure increase demand.
Gold is expected to generate around A$68 billion in annual export earnings, overtaking liquefied natural gas to become Australia’s second-largest resources export behind iron ore.
Iron ore remains comfortably in first place, although earnings are expected to decline as additional global supply enters the market.
The numbers illustrate an important shift in Australian mining: future growth is increasingly tied not simply to Chinese steel production, but to AI infrastructure, electrification and global competition for critical minerals.
