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RBA rate decision looms as markets price near-90% chance of hike

a person stacking coins on top of a table — Credit: Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash
Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash

Australian markets are bracing for another Reserve Bank interest rate increase, with traders pricing an almost 90% chance that the cash rate will rise to 4.85% today.

The decision, due at 2:30pm AEDT, would take borrowing costs to their highest level in 18 years as the RBA continues to battle persistent inflation.

The central bank will also release updated economic forecasts alongside its decision, with particular attention on inflation, employment and household spending.

Another increase would add further pressure to mortgage holders and interest-rate-sensitive sectors, while potentially providing support for the Australian dollar.

Financial stocks are also in focus, with investors weighing the impact of higher rates on bank margins against the risk of weaker credit growth and rising borrower stress.