Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to around A$422 billion in 2026-27 as high energy prices and growing demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure support commodity markets.
The latest government outlook represents an increase from around A$403 billion in 2025-26, although export earnings are expected to gradually decline later in the decade as energy and bulk commodity prices normalise.
Iron ore will remain Australia’s largest resources export, generating around one-quarter of total earnings, although its contribution is expected to decline as additional global supply enters the market.
Gold is becoming increasingly important and is forecast to overtake liquefied natural gas as Australia’s second-largest resources export during the outlook period.
Critical minerals are another major growth area.
Export earnings from lithium, rare earths, manganese and other critical minerals are forecast to jump from around A$17 billion to A$26 billion this financial year.
Copper is also expected to become increasingly valuable, with export earnings projected to rise from A$14 billion to around A$19 billion by 2030-31.
Artificial intelligence is becoming part of that demand story.
Data centres require enormous electricity networks, while the grids supplying them require substantial quantities of copper and other metals.
Australia’s mining outlook is therefore becoming increasingly tied not only to Chinese steel production, but also to AI infrastructure, electrification and global supply-chain security.
