logo-loader

Laying Down the Groundwork for a Knowledge-Led Society: Policy and Practice

no_picture_pai.jpg

2018, the 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view
The first venue for The Chart Seminar in 2018 will be:

Melbourne on April 16th and 17th. . 

I will also hold an online seminar, probably in May over the course of three or four days.

There will be another Seminar in London in November and I am in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.

If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected] 

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Video commentary for April 5th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Some of the topics discussed include: the outlook for cryptocurrencies, gold, oil and commodities. The Pound, continues to represent a recovery candidate.



Digital 49'ers: A look into the state of cryptoasset mining
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Canaccord which I found to be one of the more comprehensive educative pieces I have read. Here is a section:

Regarding the future outlook of bitcoin miners generally speaking, our analyses above and conversations with multiple mining-focused companies indicate that as miners continue to enter the market and raise competition levels for block rewards and transaction fees, margins will as a result compress for all participants in the mining ecosystem. While this will allow the most efficient miners in bitcoin’s network to continue to operate at relatively healthy profitability levels, less efficient mining companies are likely to face considerable pressure in this future setting of higher mining difficulty and hashrates. As a result, our expectation is that we will see the less-efficient mining companies begin to diversify their businesses sooner rather than later in one of several ways. In particular, we expect that some miners will diversify their portfolio of cryptoassets that they mine to altcoins beyond bitcoin, while others will pursue different lines of businesses altogether, e.g., cryptoasset exchanges or advisory services.

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Bitcoin remains one of the most volatile assets in the world, digital or otherwise. It has been in a bear market since late last year and it is as yet uncertain whether the lows are in. The wild jumps and collapses in cryptocurrency prices have been chastening to many investors who must now be asking whether there is a better way of making money from what is a rapidly evolving sector where there are likely going to be more losers than winners.


Laying Down the Groundwork for a Knowledge-Led Society: Policy and Practice
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from the AIMS Institute which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Africa is increasingly becoming a generator of knowledge, innovation, creativity and technology, rather than being solely an adapter of trends produced elsewhere in the world - like it was mostly the case in the past. There is no doubt that this trend must not only be encouraged by African Governments, but it must also be accelerated with the implementation of specific proposed public policies. Why? Because the knowledge and creativity-based development model renders obsolete all other models of development as it has a unique feature that none of the other models does: its entire bedrock rests on bringing self-sufficiency, independence and self-generating mechanisms of well-being gains enshrined in each domestic economy, and that is for the entire African continent. The knowledge-based development model can charter new territory for Africa – a territory where it has never succeeded in going before - a territory where an extremely knowledgeable, creative, skilled and educated young and dynamic African population combined with the implementation of science/evidence-based public policies by African leaders, finally brings societal well-being, that is well-being to every single citizen, on the continent. The knowledge-based development model can do so in two specific ways: 1) it can ensure the continent’s self-sufficiency, independence and self-generating mechanisms of well-being gains for all segments of its population rather than depending on outside help, and 2) it can, once and for all, lift all African countries out of the natural resources curse2 or the Dutch disease or the paradox of the plenty by ushering them into an era where endowment in two new kinds of natural resources – namely knowledge and creativity -- is more closely correlated with societal well-being compared to endowment in oil and other natural resources.

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Africa is often considered as a whole but is a continent replete with different languages, cultures and traditions that are as valuable and varied as anywhere else. There are obviously countries that are more successful than others and the record of improving standards of governance is patchy at best. I look forward to a time when any mention of the Africa does not require a preamble.



Email of the day on programming errors in autonomous vehicles

Now here's a thought from your friendly local software expert: Microsoft Windows has approximately 50 million lines of code and 1 defect per 2,000 lines of production code (as reported by Sogeti Labs). Industry production code is often reported to have 15-50 defects per 1,000 lines of code (Kloc). My head says Windows therefore has 25,000 defects. Not all defects can be tested out. Not all defects get "seen", because they are in rarely-executed code. Not all "seen" defects cause the blue screen of death, of course. But some do. ("The blue screen of death" is when a computer freezes up completely - on Windows machines, a blue screen is displayed with basic information intended to help an expert determine what went wrong.)

According to The Visual Capitalist, the autonomous control software in a self-driving car has about 100 million lines of code (and growing), so if a self-driving car has the same software quality as Windows, it should only have about 50,000 defects. Not all defects get "seen", because they are in rarely-executed code. Not all "seen" defects cause the blue screen of death, of course. But some do.

Oh, but but but the pointy-hair guy (the non software engineer) proclaims loudly, surely Tesla does a much better job of testing than Microsoft (with a LOT less engineers than Microsoft, maybe just to mention). And of course the other companies building similar software will also do a much better job of testing. Wow, maybe 10x better. So that self-driving car which will be hurtling you down the crowded freeway at 75 mph should only have 5,000 defects. (If you believe you can get 10x better testing results without spending a lot more than 10x the $, I have a really cool virtual bridge to sell you.) Not all defects get "seen", because they are in rarely-executed code. Not all "seen" defects cause the blue screen of death, of course. But some do...

Microsoft actually does a good job of testing. 10x better quality is really hard, and doing it with less resources, maybe not so doable. The space shuttle is the only large piece of production code that I know of where defect density was driven to near-zero - it cost many thousands of dollars per line to get that result, and the system was only 400,000 lines of code.

Hop in, let's let the car take us for a spin.


Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for this account which highlights the enormity of the challenge in getting self- driving cars on the road. There appears to be a “you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs” attitude surrounding the sector right now. However, with the number of fatalities mounting from both Tesla’s semi-autonomous features and now Uber’s killing of a pedestrian the focus of attention is likely to be turned towards the safety of these products.



Long-term themes review March 23rd 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.
The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a summary of my view at present, particularly in view of the events that have transpired this week - continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Eoin's personal portfolio March 23rd 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
One of the requests subscribers have asked for most over the last few years has been to have an easy way to find what positions I have open at any given time. Therefore, I repost this section on a daily basis and the title will always include the date of my most recent trade. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.


Video commentary for April 4th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.


 

Add related topics to MyProactive

Create your account: sign up and get ahead on news and events

NO INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Company is a publisher. You understand and agree that no content published on the Site constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is...

FOR OUR FULL DISCLAIMER CLICK HERE

Watch

Blue Star Helium's Joanne Kendrick talks new resource of 3 BCF on its key...

Blue Star Helium Ltd's (ASX:BNL) Joanne Kendrick tells Proactive's Andrew Scott they're the only pure-play helium company listed on the ASX and its strategy is to discover and develop new helium supplies in North America. Blue Star's recently received the results of independent analysis on...

16 hours, 58 minutes ago

8 min read