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A week in gold: Back above US$1,200

Last updated: 17:31 22 Nov 2014 AEDT, First published: 18:31 22 Nov 2014 AEDT

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Gold’s rollercoaster month continued with the price climbing back above US$1,200 again seemingly on hopes there might be a revival in Chinese demand.

Chinese consumers were tipped to be one the drivers of the gold price at the start of 2014 but demand has been lacklustre despite an early buying spree.

Any sign that this might be changing has been seized upon by gold fans and so it was this week as shipments from Switzerland into China in October more than tripled to 42.5 tonnes from the previous month, while 75.1 tons were shipped to India.

Hopes that the Chinese demand might pick up before the year-end rose again as its central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. 

Analysts said that any measures that boost spending power should be good for gold demand, though the move also gave a boost to the US dollar.

The strength of the US currency has weighed heavily on the gold price for months as it is traditionally used as to hedge it and moves in the opposite direction.

The impending vote in Switzerland over a proposal that the Swiss central bank hold 20% of its assets in also caused some wild gyrations.

A poll Wednesday that indicated support for the motion had dropped from 44% to 38% sparked a US$20 slide in the gold price.

Some commentators had estimated a yes vote might push the gold price as high as US$1,800, but the poll result sparked a rush to close speculative positions, brokers said.

A benign set of minutes from the US Federal Reserve helped the price steady, with no real change to the slow and steady normalisation of US monetary policy.

One group hoping the price stabilises are the gold miners themselves, who according to Mark Bristow, Randgold’s chief executive, still face a lot of pain ahead. A busted flush was how he described the industry in an interview with Bloomberg.

Not that Randgold minds too much, It bases its investment decisions on a price of US$1,000 and Bristow says the current shake-out is throwing up plenty of opportunities.

The African–focused miner has up to US$700mln to spend he said, but added its equity was also “super powerful” in the current market.

According to Bristow there is even a question mark over the survival of some of the industry’s giants but for Randgold and its position of strength that just makes it an "exciting time".


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