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Week Ahead: Christmas trading updates from retailers in focus

Last updated: 21:00 05 Jan 2014 AEDT, First published: 22:00 05 Jan 2014 AEDT

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With even the most committed party animal now over his or her New Year's Eve hangover, the market gets back to some semblance of normality this week.

Christmas trading updates from retailers will take centre stage, with home wares group Dunelm and tiles specialist Topps Tiles getting the ball rolling on Tuesday.

"Topps Tiles continues to deliver steady market share gains, adding another 150bps [1.5 percentage points] to 28.5% over the past year, consolidating its market-leading position in a declining market," notes Peel Hunt.

"With consumer trends improving, sales correlated to housing market recovery, current trade on the rise, and further impetus in self-help
initiatives, we remain confident in the Topps recovery story and further upgrades," the broker added.

Last Friday's housing data, which indicated house prices rose by an average of 8.4% in 2013, will have boosted sentiment towards both Dunelm and Topps Tiles.

Pizza delivery firm Domino's and supermarket chain Sainsbury's report on Wednesday, while on Thursday hot snacks seller Greggs, socks & knickers vendor Marks & Spencer and supermarket leader Tesco are scheduled to deliver updates.

On Thursday, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision, with the smart money on no change, despite the surprise drop in unemployment rate to 7.4% announced since the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

In the US on Friday the December non-farm payrolls data has the potential to be a market moving event.

"We estimate non-farm payrolls rose 191,000 in December," said HSBC.

"Construction payrolls rose strongly during the 2012-2013 winter season and could be an important source of hiring over the next several months. The couriers & messengers industry could also be volatile, as the boom in online shopping and holiday shipping has often caused larger-than-expected swings for this category in recent years," the bank added.

Significant announcements expected

Monday

Companies: Trading Statement: Caledonia Investments (LON:CLDN).

Economic: UK: Markit Services PMI (Dec), NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Dec). EU: Unemployment Change (Dec), Markit Services PMI (Dec), Markit PMI Composite (Dec). US: Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec).

Tuesday

Companies: Trading Statement: Dunelm Group (LON:DNLM), Topps Tiles (LON:TPT).

Economic: EU: Trade Balance EUR (Nov), Imports, Exports, Budget (Nov), Unemployment Change (Dec), Unemployment Rate s.a. (Dec), Producer Price Index (MoM) (Nov), Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)Preliminary, Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Dec)Preliminary, Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov). US: Trade Balance (Nov), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Jan).

Wednesday

Companies: Trading Statement: Domino's Pizza UK & IRL (LON:DOM), Galliford Try (LON:GFRD), Persimmon (LON:PSN), Robert Walters (LON:RWA), Sainsbury (J) (LON:SBRY). Finals: IDOX (LON:IDOX). Interims: Tungsten Corporation (LON:TUNG).

Economic: UK: BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All (YoY) (Dec), RICS Housing Price Balance (Dec). EU: Imports (MoM) (Nov), Exports (MoM) (Nov), Current Account n.s.a. (Nov), Trade Balance s.a. (Nov), Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Nov), Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov), Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov), Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Nov). US: 10-Year Note Auction, FOMC Minutes, Consumer Credit Change (Nov).

Thursday

Companies: Trading Statement: Greggs (LON:GRG), GVC Holdings (LON:GVC), Hays (LON:HAS), Laird (LON:LRD), McBride (LON:MCB), Marks & Spencer Group (LON:MKS), Rathbone Brother (LON:RAT), Restaurant Group (The) (LON:RTN), SIG (LON:SHI), Tesco (LON:TSCO). Interims: Signet Jewellers (LON:SIG).

Economic: UK: BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) (Dec), Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY) (Dec), Halifax House Prices (MoM) (Dec), BoE Asset Purchase Facility, BoE Interest Rate Decision. EU: Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov), Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Nov), ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan 9), ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference.

Friday

Companies: Trading Statement: Clarke (T) (LON:CTO), Hilton Food Group (LON:HFG), Nichols (LON:NICL), XP Power (LON:XPP).LON:

Economic: UK: Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov), Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov), Goods Trade Balance (Nov), Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov), Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov), Trade Balance; non-EU (Nov), Total Trade Balance (Nov), CB Leading Economic Index (Nov). EU: Industrial Output (MoM) (Nov), Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Nov), Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) (Nov), Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q4)Preliminary, Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4). US: Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec), Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec), Average Weekly Hours (Dec), Non-farm Payrolls (Nov), Unemployment Rate (Dec), Wholesale Inventories (Nov).

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