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Profits more than double at Prairie Provident, but stock is still undervalued

Last updated: 03:38 12 May 2017 AEST, First published: 22:22 11 May 2017 AEST

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The market discount to Mackie's valuation should diminish as the company continues to grow production

Shares in Alberta-focused Prairie Provident Resources Inc (TSE:PPR) rose in a falling market on Thursday as the company more than doubled earnings.

The profit increase was driven by a 71% increase in production in the first quarter.

The energy firm churned out 5,637 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with the Wheatland wells chipping in with around 1,500 boepd and the Arsenal Energy properties weighing in with around 1,100 boepd.

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Increased production led to oil and natural gas revenue shooting up to C$19.21mln from US$7.20mln a year earlier.

Net earnings surged to US$7.26mln from US$3.20mln, while earnings per share more than doubled to seven cents from three cents in the corresponding quarter of 2016.

The company, formed through the merger of Lone Pine Resources and Arsenal Energy, generated first quarter adjusted funds from operations of C$5.9mln, equivalent to six cents per share, up 444% year-on-year, due to increased production, higher average realized prices and lower operating expenses.

Operating netbacks (after realized hedging gains) for the quarter were C$16.25 per barrel of oil equivalent, some 31% higher than the first quarter of 2016, due to a 57%-improvement in realized prices and a 21%-reduction in per boe operating costs.

Prairie Provident said it remains cautiously optimistic on a tightening supply/demand balance for energy commodities in the second half of 2017 and believes that the company remains uniquely positioned to navigate through this challenging macro environment. 

Mackie Research has reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation and C$2 target price for the stock.

The broker says the oil and gas producer remains undervalued on a cash flow, reserves and net asset valuation basis.

“We expect the market discount to diminish as the company continues to grow production which is targeted to increase to ~7,500 boe/d [barrels of oil equivalent per day] by year-end through exploitation of its large inventory of development Mannville location at its Wheatland and Princes core area,” Mackie’s Bill Newman predicted.

It’s got a way to go - the shares currently trade at around C$0.62.

According to Newman’s calculations, that’s a valuation that represents just 39% or so of its proven developed producing reserves valuation of C$1.56 a share and 23% of its proved + probable, or 2P, reserves value of C$2.61 a share.

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