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Allergy Therapeutics plc: THE INVESTMENT CASE

Allergy Therapeutics revenues rise as hay fever portfolio cleans up

Finncap's revenue forecasts were upgraded by 6% and 7% to £72.2mln and £79.5mln for the full year 2017 and 2018 respectively.
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INVESTMENT OVERVIEW: AGY The Big Picture
The company has an 80-year history and is no “jam tomorrow” drug development company.

Allergy Therapeutics PLC (LON:AGY)  latest news on trading demonstrated stronger than expected growth across its portfolio, according to broker Finncap.

The pollen vaccine specialist gained share in a “flat” European market as it said sales had grown strongly in its latest financial year.

The company, which has developed short course inoculations against hay fever, reported revenues were well ahead of market forecasts after strong organic growth combined with a hefty currency boost. 

Revenues for the year to June will be £64.1mln (2016:£48.5mln), comprising 15% annual growth stripping out the foreign exchange effect and 32% on an actual basis.

Over the past year, Allergy continued to gain market share in Europe through its hay fever vaccines Pollinex Quattro and Pollinex.

Allergy added research and development expenditure had also come in below market expectations due to the phasing of activity, though these costs will now be incurred in the current year.

Cash at end June was £22.1mln (£23.4mln).

 

READ: Allergy Therapeutics publishes pre-clinical data on malaria and flu vaccines

 

US trial gets underway

The company has just recruited the first patients to its phase III trial of core product Pollinex Quattro in people with a sensitivity to birch pollen.

The year-long study will take place over 50 sites in Germany, Sweden, Austria and Poland will recruit 550 patients and assess the efficacy and safety of its ultra-short course treatment Pollinex Quattro. The trial is scheduled to start in the autumn.

In the US, a Phase II Grass MATA MPL trial is also still planned to start this autumn while  patients for the Acarovac Quattro dust mite allergy Phase I trial are being recruited and results continue to be expected in the autumn of 2018.

Manuel Llobet, Allergy's chief executive, said:  "Revenue growth of 15% at constant currency reflects the continued strong performance of the product portfolio and its growing market share.

“Our double digit CAGR of revenue over the past 18 years demonstrates that we have a robust, reliable and successful business model."

 

Broker reckons the stock could almost double in value

The shares rose 11% to 29p, valuing the business at £182mln.

As a result, finncap's revenue forecasts were upgraded by 6% and 7% respectively to £72.2mln and £79.5mln for the full year 2017 and 2018.

The new target price is a 7% increase but finnCap adds PQ Grass in the US can add an additional 30p per share if it is a success.

 

About the company 

Allergy Therapeutics has an 80-year history and is no “jam tomorrow” drug development company.

It has a profitable core business and, as the name suggests, a number of ground-breaking allergy vaccines that trade under various brand names. Its most commonly prescribed vaccines are used to treat pollen-related allergies, particularly allergies to grasses and trees.

It has a strong presence in Europe with established operations in Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, while in other markets it often makes its products available through distribution partners.

Its Pollinex Quattro vaccine for the treatment of seasonal allergic rhinitis (hay fever) from grass, tree or ragweed pollen allergy is already established in Europe, and the company wants to replicate that in the US, where it will enjoy first mover advantage in a market potentially worth $2bn.

 


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